National-conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki has been elected President of Poland after defeating Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in Sunday’s run-off election.
Despite exit polls initially suggesting a slim lead for Trzaskowski, a swing to the Law and Justice-backed candidate throughout the evening ultimately delivered Nawrocki the win.
Early projections from Ipsos and OGB showed Trzaskowski ahead by less than a percentage point, prompting him to prematurely declare victory at his campaign headquarters. “We’ve won!” he announced confidently, in a statement that now looks destined to become one of the great political missteps of recent Polish history.
However, as vote counts came in from across the country, especially from Poland’s rural and traditionally conservative regions, Nawrocki pulled ahead. The final tally saw Nawrocki at 50.89 percent and Trzaskowski at 49.11 percent.
Trzaskowski dominated in urban centers such as Warsaw, Gdańsk, and Kraków, but it was Nawrocki’s overwhelming support in the countryside, with margins of 90 to 10 in some districts, that proved decisive. He also benefited heavily from the redistribution of first-round votes. While voters from center-left and left-wing parties, such as those of Szymon Hołownia, Magdalena Biejat, and Adrian Zandberg, overwhelmingly backed Trzaskowski, supporters of right-wing candidates delivered a landslide for Nawrocki.
Grzegorz Braun’s electorate broke decisively for the conservative, with 92 percent choosing Nawrocki. But the real kingmakers were the voters of third-placed Sławomir Mentzen of the nationalist-right Confederation party. Over 90 percent of them backed Nawrocki in the second round, sealing the result and ensuring continued political gridlock between a right-leaning presidential palace and the liberal-led parliament under Donald Tusk.
Exit polls have been criticized following the result, with many questioning how both major polling firms could miss the actual result. Former prime minister and senior PiS figure Mateusz Morawiecki told TVP that as much as “10 to 15 percent” of respondents refused to disclose their vote to pollsters, which may have disproportionately obscured conservative support.
Przemysław Czarnek, a senior Law and Justice MP and former education minister, celebrated the result and told TV Republika: “I can reassure you that maybe not starting tomorrow, but from Tuesday, we will begin very energetic work in order to give the Polish people another gift – the end of Tusk’s government.”
During his campaign, Nawrocki pledged to be a “guardian of the Constitution” and present a “moral alternative” to what he described as a corrupt liberal elite. He promised to block any legislation undermining Polish sovereignty or promoting what he called “gender ideology and mass illegal migration.” He also committed to protecting traditional family values, maintaining Poland’s tough stance on border security, and vetoing attempts to increase EU influence over domestic law.
Nawrocki’s election marks a significant symbolic victory for the nationalist right and the Law and Justice party, despite its loss of parliamentary power last year. His presidency ensures that Prime Minister Tusk’s government will continue to face an ideologically opposed head of state, setting the stage for further clashes between Poland’s executive branches in the months ahead.
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