Original Article By David Lindfield
New York’s Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul’s once-comfortable lead in the 2026 governor’s race could be slipping away, according to a new poll.
New polling data shows Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) closing the gap to less than a single point after voters learn more about each candidate’s record.
The GrayHouse survey, conducted for Stefanik’s leadership PAC, E-PAC, shows Hochul initially leading Stefanik 48% to 43%.
However, once respondents were informed of Hochul’s record on issues like bail reform, New York’s soaring cost of living, and her endorsement of radical socialist NYC mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, her lead collapsed to 46.4% to Stefanik’s 45.9%.
‘Worst Governor in America’
Stefanik, who launched her campaign in September, wasted no time hammering Hochul’s record in a blistering statement.
“The data is clear that Kathy Hochul, the worst governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party,” Stefanik said.
“Kathy Hochul has destroyed New York State, creating an affordability crisis with the highest taxes in the nation, and the highest energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills.
“Her single-party Democrat rule, failed bail reform, and sanctuary state policies have put criminals and illegals first and New Yorkers last.
“It’s a political disaster for Hochul.”
Numbers Paint Bleak Picture for Hochul
The GrayHouse poll surveyed 1,250 likely midterm voters and found only 10% strongly approve of Hochul’s performance, compared to 44% who strongly disapprove.
Among independents, Hochul is particularly toxic: 64% view her unfavorably, including 49% very unfavorably.
By contrast, Stefanik fares better with independents, earning 37% favorable to 35% unfavorable, with 21% strongly favorable.
Hochul’s overall favorability sits at just 40%, while her unfavorable rating has climbed to 57%.
Stefanik’s ratings come in at 35% favorable and 33% unfavorable.
Mamdani Factor
Hochul’s endorsement of radical Democrat Zohran Mamdani for New York City mayor is also proving politically costly.
Mamdani, a socialist who has drawn comparisons to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), is currently leading polls in the city.
In a September op-ed for The New York Times, Hochul praised Mamdani as a “leader who shares my commitment” to affordability and safety, even while admitting they disagreed on some issues.
But GrayHouse’s polling shows that 47% of independents say they would be less likely to vote for Democrats in 2026 if Mamdani is elected mayor.
Stefanik’s Path Forward
Stefanik’s campaign team argues the numbers reflect a crumbling base of support for Hochul.
“This poll is devastating for the worst governor in America,” said Alex deGrasse, executive director of Team Elise.
“Hochul’s dismal record of failure and bending the knee to Commie Mamdani is causing her already weak support to crater across New York.
“Voters want change and a governor who will fight for them, which is why they will resoundingly reject Hochul for new leadership in Elise Stefanik.”
The poll stands in sharp contrast with a Siena survey released just weeks earlier that showed Hochul leading Stefanik 52% to 27%.
That poll, however, was conducted before Hochul’s endorsement of Mamdani and before Stefanik had formally kicked off her campaign.
With one year to go before the gubernatorial election, the race is already shaping up to be one of the most closely watched in the country, with Republicans sensing their strongest chance in years to retake the governor’s mansion in deep-blue New York.
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