Article By Frank Bergman
Experts are sounding the alarm that a devastating global food crisis is already beginning to unfold as catastrophic harvests, fertilizer shortages, war, and a powerful El Niño threaten to send food prices soaring.
The warnings come as acute hunger is already at record levels across impoverished parts of the world.
The World Food Programme has warned that a powerful El Niño could push nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity across some of the world’s most vulnerable regions by the end of next year.
Meanwhile, major agricultural regions in Europe and the United States are facing disastrous growing conditions.
The crisis is being compounded by severe disruptions to the global fertilizer supply caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is now warning that the convergence of war and extreme weather has created a “perfect storm” for another global surge in food prices.
And the consequences are already beginning to spill far beyond the world’s farms.
Harvests Hammered across Europe and America
Western Europe was battered by record heat during a critical period for crops.
June 2026 was the hottest June ever recorded in Western Europe, according to reports.
France recorded its hottest nationally averaged day on record, while Germany, Denmark, and the Czech Republic experienced record temperatures.
The damage was serious enough for European grain trade association COCERAL to issue an unusual out-of-cycle forecast slashing expected EU and UK grain production to 286.6 million metric tons.
That was approximately 9 million metric tons below its previous forecast and 23.4 million below last year’s production, although the entire year-over-year decline cannot be attributed solely to June’s heat.
Britain is facing another alarming situation.
England and Wales experienced their “driest July in at least 190 years,” with projected combined production of barley, oats, and oilseed rape falling to just 19.5 million metric tons.
That would fall below the previous record low of 19.8 million metric tons set in 2020 and represent the poorest output since detailed records began in 1984.
America is also being hit.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts the smallest American wheat crop in more than half a century, with planted acreage at its lowest level since records began in 1919.
Hard red winter wheat production, the crucial bread wheat grown across the Great Plains, is projected to be the smallest since 1957 following severe drought.
Fertilizer Crisis Threatens the Next Harvest
The immediate crop damage is only part of the looming threat.
Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is hammering one of the world’s most critical fertilizer supply routes.
Before the conflict, as much as 30 percent of global fertilizer exports traveled through the waterway, along with sulfur needed to manufacture phosphate fertilizer.
The blockade has severely disrupted those supply chains while farmers across both hemispheres prepare for planting seasons.
Farmers are already facing urea fertilizer price increases ranging from 20 to 60 percent alongside higher fuel, transportation, and irrigation expenses.
Even the World Economic Forum is warning that the result could be “cascading shocks that reduce future food production.”
The organization warned that higher energy and logistics costs can lead to fertilizer shortages, followed by declining crop yields and ultimately higher food prices months later.
The damage being inflicted now therefore threatens not merely today’s food prices, but the amount of food available during future harvests.
An expert interviewed by NPR warned that existing food supplies and stocks may be adequate now, but the real danger lies ahead.
“The problem is for the next harvest,” the expert warned.
The expert said supplies and stocks will decline as the year progresses, driving prices higher, with the situation potentially worsening again in 2027.
Food Crisis Already Fueling Chaos
The consequences of food insecurity may already be contributing to political and migration crises.
Morocco has suffered through seven years of drought, including its worst drought conditions in four decades.
The crisis nearly halved the country’s cereal harvest and wiped out approximately 720,000 agricultural jobs, according to a report from Forbes.
The economic devastation came as approximately 60,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in just two days.
More than 50 people reportedly died during the attempted crossings.
The border chaos rapidly spilled across Europe, with France tightening its border with Spain and Italy suspending Schengen arrangements.
The crisis demonstrates how quickly food shortages and agricultural collapse can transform into mass migration and political instability.
Another Crisis Hits American Food Supply
American agriculture is simultaneously dealing with another serious disruption.
California lettuce growers have been destroying crops amid collapsing demand during a nationwide cyclosporiasis outbreak.
Larry Cox of Coastline Family Farms in California’s Salinas Valley reportedly plowed 300,000 pounds of romaine hearts back into the ground as consumers abandoned lettuce.
The outbreak adds yet another complication to a food system already facing drought, soaring input costs, fertilizer disruptions, and poor harvests.
UN Economist Warns of ‘Perfect Storm’
The chief economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the world is approaching another wave of food inflation.
“The world is on the verge of another bout of food inflation as wars in Iran and Ukraine, along with El Niño, create a perfect storm of higher costs and lower crop yields,” the FAO economist warned.
The convergence is particularly dangerous because the pressures are reinforcing one another.
Drought and El Niño are damaging harvests.
War is disrupting energy, shipping, and fertilizer supplies.
Higher fertilizer and energy costs are making it more expensive for farmers to produce the next crop.
And lower production threatens to drive food prices even higher for consumers already struggling with years of inflation.
For wealthy Western nations, the consequences could mean another painful surge in grocery bills.
For poorer countries already struggling to feed their populations, however, the consequences could be catastrophic.
With another 49 million people potentially being driven into acute hunger, collapsing harvests across major agricultural regions, and fertilizer shortages threatening future food production, warnings of a historic global food crisis are no longer about some distant threat.
The first shockwaves are already hitting.
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